The week kicks o with soybean prices maintaining stability on the Chicago Stock Exchange. Around 6:15 am (Brasília time) on Monday (5), oilseed futures experienced a decline of 0.25 to 1.25 points. March was quoted at US$ 11.87, while May dropped below the $12.00 mark, settling at $11.98.
The market remains vigilant, balancing known information and grappling with the impact of technical movements, particularly as funds defend their short positions. The recent negative graphical closing on Friday, especially the breach of the major support at US$ 12.00 for March and May soybean futures, raises concerns. Ginaldo Sousa, the general director of Grupo Labhoro, emphasizes the danger posed by the significant selling of agricultural commodities on the CBOT.
Despite this, attention remains on South American weather conditions, with Argentina experiencing predominantly dry weather. The Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange has downgraded its index of good or excellent crops from 44% to 36% within a week, primarily aecting the provinces of Buenos Aires, Santa Fé, and La Pampa. Sousa notes the lack of decent rain in Argentina for three weeks and varying predictions from climate models.
In Brazil, the Center and North of Paraná received only 50% of normal rainfall, while São Paulo and Mato Grosso do Sul faced similar conditions. Conflicting forecasts from dierent climate models continue, with the GFS model predicting below-normal rainfall for Argentina, while the European model suggests reasonably good rainfall. However, both models converge on below-normal rainfall for the South and part of the Brazilian Center-West over the next 10 days.
The week ahead prompts monitoring of China and its extended Lunar New Year holiday.
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