Maintaining a cautious outlook on soybean supply and demand, the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) made conservative adjustments to its projections for Brazil's 2024/24 harvest. In a report issued this Friday, the agency slightly reduced its estimates for the Brazilian harvest by 0.6% compared to the previous month, anticipating a total of 155 million tons—a figure significantly below market expectations. Analysts surveyed by "The Wall Street Journal" had predicted a soybean production of 152.5 million tons.
The USDA attributed its projections to adverse weather conditions in Paraná, offset by a more favorable crop scenario in the north of Rio Grande do Sul. Notably, the agency adjusted Brazilian exports, witnessing a 3% increase, reaching a historic high of 103 million tons.
Argentina's production remained steady compared to February, holding at 50 million tons. Concerning the US harvest figures, vital for price dynamics on the Chicago Stock Exchange, there were no alterations from the previous report. Predictions maintained production at 113.34 million tons, exports at 46.81 million, and ending stocks at 8.57 million—falling slightly below analysts' anticipated reserves of 8.68 million tons.
In response to this landscape, the most traded soybean contracts for May are presently experiencing a 0.54% increase, reaching US$11.72 per bushel. Shifting to the global soybean outlook, the USDA revised down the global harvest estimate by 0.3%, totaling 396.85 million tons. Expectations for global exports, however, saw a 1.8% increase to 173.61 million tons, while estimates for ending stocks decreased by 1.5% to 114.27 million tons.
Kommentare