Soybean prices surged in the early morning hours this Wednesday (18) on the Chicago Board of Trade. By 6:30 a.m. (Brasília time), the most-traded contracts were up by more than 12 points, with November valued at $10.18 and May – a key reference for Brazil’s new crop – at $10.66 per bushel.
The rise in soybean futures followed an upward trend in soy derivatives, with meal and oil climbing more than 1% in major contracts. Soybean oil recovered the 40-cent per pound mark, with December quoted at 40.33 cents/lb, and soy meal priced at $325.90 per short ton.
In addition to soybeans and derivatives, agricultural commodities saw broad gains this Wednesday as the market closely watches financial developments, especially the upcoming interest rate decision from the U.S. Federal Reserve. In Brazil, the focus remains on the Copom (Monetary Policy Committee) and the future of the Selic rate, with both factors expected to impact the currency market directly.
At the same time, traders are keeping a close eye on Brazil’s weather, which continues to hinder the full start of soybean planting in the Midwest due to a lack of rain. In Paraná, fieldwork has begun, but producers remain cautious.
Forecasts indicate that regions like Mato Grosso, Mato Grosso do Sul, Goiás, and parts of the Southeast, as well as the Matopiba region, will likely see consistent rainfall only starting in October, allowing planting to progress more significantly. Until then, as analysts and market consultants explain, the risk premium for adverse weather conditions remains built into Chicago’s prices, particularly with a focus on Brazil’s upcoming crop.
Yesterday, Conab (Brazil’s National Supply Company) released its first projection for the 2024/25 Brazilian soybean crop at 166.2 million tons, three million lower than the USDA’s forecast.
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