Soybean prices traded on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) hit new lows during Thursday's session (18th). After a brief respite, prices are once again reflecting their underlying fundamentals. By 8:40 AM (Brasília time), prices had fallen between 0.50 and 4.50 points, with longer-term contracts experiencing the largest declines. August contracts stood at $10.96, while November contracts were at $10.36 per bushel.
The market remains pressured by the prospect of a large U.S. supply. The 2024/25 crop is progressing well in the U.S., with over 120 million tons expected to be harvested, marking a significant increase from the previous season. This potential rise in global stocks is adding downward pressure on prices, as explained by Matheus Pereira, director of Pátria Agronegócios.
Although demand remains strong, it is primarily concentrated in Brazil, which is slowing down the U.S. export program, further limiting price recovery on the CBOT.
Additionally, the U.S. presidential race is drawing traders' attention, with the increasing possibility of Donald Trump returning to the White House. This scenario could heighten the U.S.-China trade war, adding another layer of uncertainty to the market.
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