The soybean market on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) saw prices rising again on the morning of Friday (2nd). As of 7:35 AM (Brasília time), prices were up by 7 to 11.75 points in the most traded contracts. The August contract was priced at $10.29, September at $10.20, and November at $10.28 per bushel. Prices are ending the week at better levels than those seen at the beginning of the week, experiencing a technical correction after aggressive declines.
Despite the recent gains, pressure on CBOT soybean prices remains. Analysts and market consultants explain that favorable weather forecasts in the United States are contributing to this pressure, signaling a significant supply from the country in the upcoming season. Additionally, demand for U.S. soybeans remains subdued.
“There isn't a major issue; we cannot speak of significant production cuts. On the contrary, we are increasingly talking about the possibility of a bumper crop, with very high yields in the main producing states, potentially reaching the highest productivity in U.S. history,” explains Luiz Fernando Gutierrez, a market analyst at Safras & Mercado.
According to Gutierrez, although pressure is still present in the CBOT soybean market, there is room for some declines. “The majority of the negative movement is already here and is passing, but we still have a macro scenario that is more positive than negative,” he states. He adds that, on the demand side, a much more aggressive move by China in the U.S. would be needed to significantly change the price scenario.
Moreover, both soybean meal and oil are rising considerably, supporting gains in grain prices. In Brazil, the dollar trading above R$ 5.70 continues to provide substantial support for soybean prices in the domestic market.
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