The new month of August begins with soybean prices declining on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) this Thursday morning. The only stable position is the contract for August itself, trading at $10.28, which is just 0.25 points above the previous close. Meanwhile, the September contract is trading at $10.11, down by 2.75 points, November is quoted at $10.20, marking a 2-point drop, and January 2025 is at $10.37, down 2.50 points. This decline reflects the steady soybean cycle in the United States, which is expected to result in high productivity.
In an interview conducted by Notícias Agrícolas on Wednesday (July 31), Marcos Araújo, an analyst at Agrinvest, highlighted that only 4% of U.S. soybean crops are under water stress, compared to 53% last year, indicating favorable climatic conditions. He warned about the excess supply and stagnant demand, emphasizing that producers should consider early marketing strategies to mitigate risks.
In a commentary released this morning, Eduardo Vanin, also an analyst at Agrinvest, noted that even though American soybeans are cheaper than Brazilian ones, Chinese crushers are very cautious and are avoiding purchases at this moment. According to him, the crushing margins are not favorable.
The USDA is set to release its weekly Export Sales report later today, with market expectations for old crop soybean sales ranging from 75,000 to 300,000 tons and new crop sales between 300,000 to 900,000 tons. Meal sales are anticipated to be between 150,000 to 700,000 tons for this and the next marketing year, while soybean oil sales are estimated at 0 to 20,000 tons. June's crush data will be updated on Thursday, with most expecting to see a decrease from May but an improvement compared to last year.
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