Soybean Prices Dip as Stronger Real Impacts Export Values

On Thursday, July 4th, the soybean market experienced a decline in prices at Brazilian ports as the U.S. Independence Day holiday left the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) closed. The focus shifted to the Brazilian real, which appreciated against the U.S. dollar. By 15:40 Brasília time, the dollar had dropped more than 1%, trading at R$5.49, putting downward pressure on domestic soybean prices.

"Some buyers remained active in the Brazilian market, with prices ranging from stable to slightly lower compared to the previous day due to the dollar," reported the team at Pátria Agronegócios.

Earlier in the week, soybean prices had reached record levels, especially at ports, with CBOT prices above $11.00 per bushel and the dollar near R$5.70 before adjusting. Farmers took advantage of these high prices, with references at the Port of Santos reaching between R$150.00 and R$155.00 per sack for available soybeans, and R$140.00 for the new crop.

Despite the recent dip, soybean prices had surged due to high premiums and favorable dollar rates, which benefitted producers still selling their crops and those covering costs for the 2025 harvest. Matheus Pereira, director at Pátria, emphasized the importance of market conditions in deciding whether to capitalize on current prices.

Brazilian soybean exports have totaled 76 million tons so far this year, 2% more than last year and 20% above the average of recent years. This strong export performance has maintained high premiums, driven by robust Chinese demand and favorable margins for swine producers.

However, the appreciation of the real led to a decrease of up to R$5.00 per sack in some regions, according to Vlamir Brandalizze of Brandalizze Consulting. Ports also saw a decrease in prices, reflecting the market's adjustment to the stronger real.

As the market looks ahead, the weather in the U.S. Midwest and its impact on crop development will remain a key factor. Analysts expect the soybean market to slow down if demand for soybean oil, particularly from India and China, wanes.

The CBOT will resume trading on Friday, but only for a half-day session, which may add volatility to the market next week. Analysts caution that soybean prices could see further declines if the U.S. crop outlook remains favorable and demand for soybean oil decreases.