Brazilian Soybean Market Dynamics: Oversupply Challenges and Price Pressures
Market consultant Vlamir Brandalizze of Brandalizze Consulting reports that Brazil still grapples with an excess of 105 to 110 million tons of unsold soybeans from the 2023/24 harvest.
As the harvesting continues, this substantial surplus is gradually entering the market, exerting pressure not just on prices in Chicago but also impacting the national market. The surplus is affecting premiums and final prices internally, both in spot transactions and bulk deals.
Due to CBOT's non-operation on a specific Monday, prices in the Brazilian market remained nominal. Counter prices tested around R$107.00 per bag in the Missões region, reaching R$110.00 near the port of Rio Grande. Prices across regions from Minas Gerais to Ponta Grossa in Paraná fluctuated between R$95.00 and R$107.00.
Cold deals were observed on the counter, and even more so in the lot market. The absence of activity in Chicago, coupled with negative premiums, led to nominal prices at the ports, ranging from R$118.00 to R$120.00 per bag, reflecting a linear trend, as explained by Brandalizze.
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