The 9th Grain Crop Survey released this Thursday (13) by the National Supply Company (Conab) has reduced the expectation for Brazil's 2023/24 soybean crop.
The agency now estimates that the country will produce 147.3535 million tons of soybeans. The reduction between the previous and current reports is relatively small, only 330,000 tons. However, compared to last season's indicated 154.6095 million tons, a 4.7% decrease is noticeable. Identifying new production areas in Mato Grosso, Goiás, and Maranhão, Conab increased the projected area by 0.5% from the previous survey, indicating 45.978 million hectares.
Regarding the country's average soybean productivity, there was an adjustment in the current report. The expected yield is 3,205 kg per hectare (53.4 bags). In the previous season, Brazil's yield was 3,507 kg per hectare (58.4 bags), which is 8.6% lower than the last cycle.
Impacts of Soybean Production in Rio Grande do Sul
The reductions are mainly due to the climatic disaster that struck Rio Grande do Sul. "Despite all the climatic problems, the state returns to being the second-largest soybean producer in Brazil, with an expectation of 20.1 million tons of soybeans," says Marco Antônio Chaves, Conab's acting Crop Monitoring manager.
After the events that impacted the southern state, the agency reduced the soybean harvest projection for Rio Grande do Sul by 1.6946 million tons. Emater-RS projects a significantly higher impact of 2.7 million tons.
Only five states managed to increase productivity compared to the previous harvest:
Rio Grande do Sul: from 1,986 kg/ha to 2,985 kg/ha (50.3%)
Roraima: from 2,800 kg/ha to 3,000 kg/ha (7.1%)
Pará: from 3,063 kg/ha to 3,268 kg/ha (6.7%)
Amazonas: from 2,880 kg/ha to 3,060 kg/ha (6.3%)
Rondônia: from 3,423 kg/ha to 3,547 kg/ha (3.6%)
In Conab's 1st Survey of the 2023/24 crop, the expectation was 162 million tons of soybeans, considering the full potential of the intended planted area. Therefore, between the current projection (147.3535 million), the reduction over the period is 9%.
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