Soybean futures are trading in negative territory on the Chicago Board of Trade this Thursday (20), following the Juneteenth holiday in the U.S. Around 11 a.m. (Brasília time), prices had fallen between 4 and 11.50 points, with the July contract priced at $11.70 and the November contract, a reference for the American harvest, at $11.20 per bushel.
The more significant declines continue to be felt on longer maturities. "Given the prospect of a potentially record-breaking new crop and low demand for the old crop, the market is penalizing the November contract - representing the crop for U.S. producers - more heavily on the curve," says the Agrinvest Commodities team. As a result, the indicator is testing its lows from May 2023 and December 2021, reaching $11.20.
The market resumes trading still focused on weather conditions in the U.S. Midwest, which remain favorable and keep expectations high for a good 2024/25 crop. At the same time, the delay in the export program, one of the largest in 20 years, also weighs on prices.
Another factor still in the spotlight for market players is the strong appreciation of the dollar against the real. The U.S. currency remains in a strong upward trend, surpassing R$ 5.40, which makes U.S. soybeans less competitive and Brazilian soybeans more attractive on the available market.
On Thursday, even with a correction of the currency after recent highs, it remains above R$ 5.40, being quoted at R$ 5.42 with a decline of 0.5%.
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