Soybean prices ended Wednesday’s session (18) in positive territory on the Chicago Board of Trade, though with more modest gains. The most-traded contracts climbed between 6.75 and 9 points. At one point during the day, gains exceeded 10 points, leaving November contracts closing at $10.15 and May – a reference for Brazil’s new crop – at $10.60 per bushel.
Soy futures were supported throughout the day by strong performance in soy derivatives also traded on the CBOT. Soy meal, however, lost momentum and closed stable, testing slight declines, while soybean oil managed to hold onto over a 1% gain in the most-traded contracts.
“China’s antidumping investigations against Canadian canola and possible retaliations towards Australia could further restrict rapeseed meal supply in the Chinese market, which supported soy meal for most of the day,” explained Agrinvest Commodities. “However, in the afternoon, soy meal reversed, wiping out much of soy’s earlier gains, as rumors in Argentina suggested reducing export taxes from 33% to 30%, which could put significant pressure on soy meal prices,” added the consultancy.
In addition to movements in soy derivatives, traders remained focused on weather conditions in both the U.S. and Brazil, where a lack of rainfall continues to raise concerns over the start of the 2024/25 soybean planting season in key regions. Lanzoerques Júnior, an agrometeorologist at Zeus AgroTech, noted that rainfall should gradually return to the major production regions, though there remain areas of concern, with maps showing differing projections for Pará and the Matopiba region.
For Brazil’s Midwest, weather models continue to point to more consistent rainfall only starting in October, which could also apply to the Southeast. In Paraná, Brazil’s second-largest soybean-producing state, planting has already begun, reaching 1% of the estimated 5.8 million hectares, according to the state’s Department of Rural Economy (Deral). If confirmed, this will be the largest area ever devoted to soybean cultivation in Paraná. Fieldwork has also begun in parts of Mato Grosso do Sul.
On Wednesday, Climatempo released a report highlighting the impact of dry weather on the start of the summer crops.
“The current period of drought and heat is expected to continue until mid-October, due to delayed rainfall for the start of spring, affecting summer crop planting. The spring season, which begins on September 22, will not immediately bring the return of rains. September is expected to remain dry and hot across central Brazil and parts of the Northeast, including the states of São Paulo, Minas Gerais, Goiás, Mato Grosso do Sul, Mato Grosso, Bahia, Tocantins, Maranhão, and Piauí,” warned Climatempo.
The day also saw the U.S. dollar fall against the Brazilian real, closing Wednesday with a 0.8% drop to R$5.45. After the announcement, the U.S. currency plunged more than 1%, a factor that also supported futures not only for soybeans but for other commodities as well. In sugar, for instance, gains on the New York Stock Exchange exceeded 5%.
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