Soybean complex futures experienced a sharp decline last week, returning to levels last seen in 2020. Soybeans are now trading below $10.00 per bushel, leading to a decrease in export parity in Brazil as well as lower prices in the spot market.
According to researchers at Cepea, expectations that global supply might surpass demand have been the main factor putting pressure on prices. A USDA report released on August 12 predicts that global soybean production will increase from 395.12 million tons in the 2023/24 season to 428.72 million tons in 2024/25, both record volumes.
Although international transactions and global consumption are expected to rise, ending stocks could also reach record levels, estimated at 134.3 million tons for 2024/25, which is 19.5% higher than the 112.36 million tons from the 2023/24 season.
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