The expansion of soybean acreage in Brazil for the 2024/25 season is projected to be the smallest in the last ten years, with the total planted area approaching 47 million hectares, according to Luiz Noto, CEO of Cofco’s Grains and Oilseeds division in Brazil.
Noto cited "narrower margins" for farmers, driven by four-year lows in Chicago soybean prices and high interest rates affecting agricultural financing, as key factors limiting the increase. Despite this slower growth, Brazil's soybean crop, with planting set to begin in mid-September in states like Mato Grosso and Paraná, could still reach a new record high in volume.
"For the next grain season, we see the potential for a larger soybean crop than this year, with continued acreage growth and better yields, thanks to the impact of this year’s climatic issues," Noto said, referring to the droughts in parts of the central-south and floods in Rio Grande do Sul during the 2023/24 season.
"Our forecast is that the potential for planted area growth is close to 47 million hectares," Noto added in response to questions from Reuters.
In July, Cofco had estimated a potential increase in Brazil's soybean crop but had not provided specific details. Next year, the Chinese company will begin operating the first phase of its new terminal at the port of Santos, which will increase its export capacity.
Noto did not specify the exact growth rate of the planted area from one season to the next. In the previous cycle, the planted area in Brazil was about 46 million hectares, according to the National Supply Company (Conab).
Over the past decade, the smallest increase in soybean planted area occurred in the 2016/17 season, with a 1.98% rise over 2015/16, according to Conab data.
However, the growth mentioned by Noto would still be enough to produce a new record crop for Brazil, assuming normal climatic conditions, after the world's largest soybean producer and exporter faced weather-related challenges in the last harvest.
"For the 2024/25 season, we are considering a production potential of around 168 million tons," Noto said.
Brazil's soybean production in 2023/24 fell to 147.4 million tons, according to Conab, down from a record 154.6 million tons the previous year. Industry association Abiove’s estimates are higher, at 153.2 million and 160.3 million tons, respectively.
Cofco also stated that it is taking measures to improve traceability, risk management, and supplier performance, while advancing its commitment to achieving deforestation-free soybean supply chains by 2025, and conversion-free in sensitive regions of South America by 2030.
In May 2024, the company completed its first shipment of 50,000 tons of deforestation- and conversion-free (DCF) Brazilian soybeans, which was delivered to Tianjin, China.
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