The 2024/25 soybean crop in Mato Grosso, Brazil's largest soybean-producing state, is estimated at 44.04 million tons, unchanged from the August forecast, according to the Mato Grosso Institute of Agricultural Economics (Imea).
However, the institute has raised concerns about dry weather expected in September, which marks the beginning of the soybean planting season.
Imea noted that the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture has moved up the end of the sanitary void period in the state, allowing soybean planting to begin on September 7. This move is intended to extend the planting window for second-crop cultivations, such as corn or cotton.
"However, climate forecasts for the coming months indicate delayed and low-volume rainfall during the early part of the planting season," Imea stated in a report released on Monday.
"Analyzing the average of climate models, the precipitation anomalies for September project below-average rainfall across Mato Grosso. This could slow the pace of planting at the start of the season if rains do not normalize, and also affect the yield potential of early-planted areas due to lower soil moisture."
Given these conditions, the agency maintained its productivity estimate at 57.97 bags per hectare, which would represent an 11.15% increase over the previous season. If achieved, Mato Grosso would see a 12.78% increase in total production compared to last season. The planted area is expected to grow by just 1.47%, reaching 12.66 million hectares.
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