According to data released in recent weeks by the US National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA), crushing in December in the country was 5.3 million tons, representing a new monthly record.
Furthermore, Argentina's Cereals Exchange once again recorded an increase in its projection for the country's soybean harvest, estimated at 52.5 million tons. In this way, it is expected that Argentina will regain the main position of bran exporting countries and the international market will remain supplied.
The price of the first contract contract for soybean meal in Chicago closed January 30th at US$363/ton, 6% lower than the price a month ago, thus reflecting the good supply of the product on the foreign market.
The market remains optimistic about the availability of the product, where it is expected that 35.5 million tons of soybeans will be crushed in Argentina in the 2023/24 cycle, an increase of 5.2 million tons compared to 2022/23, according to the latest report from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Additionally, in the US, the projected increase is 2.3 million tons, with soybean processing capacity growing by 6 million tons.
In Brazil, an increase in crushing is also expected, mainly to comply with the B14 program. Thus, speculative funds continue to hold short positions in bran and oil, due to the feeling of greater global availability of soy derivatives.
Soybean oil also depreciated during the month of January on the Chicago Stock Exchange, closing January 30th at 46 cUSD/lb, close to the lowest levels of the month. The advances in oil prices in the last week may bring some support to oil prices, but the market remains bearish for the same reason as bran, in addition to the perpetuation of low prices for RINs* D4 in the USA.
On the Chicago Board of Trade, soybean futures for March delivery dropped 12 3/4¢ to $11.86 3⁄4 a bushel overnight. Additionally, soymeal experienced a decline of $5.10 to $353.70 a short ton, while soy oil rose 0.06¢ to 46¢ a pound.
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