The Brazilian Association of Soybean Producers (Aprosoja) stated on Wednesday that the soybean crop estimates for Brazil's 2023/24 season are being overestimated, whether calculated by private sector analysts or government institutions. Aprosoja has maintained its own projection at approximately 135 million tons, potentially the lowest in the market.
According to Aprosoja, this estimate suggests a decrease of about 20 million tons compared to the previous season's record, based on Conab's forecast for 2022/23 (154.6 million tons).
For the current season, Conab predicts a reduction to 149.4 million tons. Private consultancy firms also show varying numbers. Last Friday, StoneX increased its forecast for Brazil’s soybean crop to 151.5 million tons, while AgResource released a more pessimistic estimate of 143.92 million tons.
The Brazilian Association of Vegetable Oil Industries (Abiove) projects a harvest of 153.8 million tons. Aprosoja argues that "reports from producers reflect the real conditions in the field, which differ significantly from the current estimates of private companies and official bodies."
"Producers reported that even in visually good crops, the grains are not developing well due to existing anomalies, resulting in reduced weight," said the association.
Currently, the harvest in Brazil has reached approximately 50% of the total area nationwide.
"Combines are recording significantly lower productivity than initially estimated," Aprosoja continued.
The association has been working with the Agricultural Parliamentary Front (FPA), financial institutions, and the Ministry of Agriculture to ensure that solutions to support producers are available as soon as possible.
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