Safras & Mercado analyst and consultant, Luiz Fernando Gutierrez Roque, spoke on Tuesday (26) during the opening of the 7th edition of Safras Agri Week, indicating that the Brazilian soybean market remains in a phase of price depreciation. He noted that this downward trend has persisted over the past year, although there's an expectation for a rebound, particularly in the second half of the year. Roque emphasized that the market has already reached what could be considered a "rock bottom" in terms of price.
The size of the Brazilian oilseed harvest is currently a key topic of discussion. Recent data from Safras & Mercado, factoring in losses in various states, suggest a production of 148.6 million tons, falling short of the initial estimate surpassing 160 million tons. Roque attributed this shortfall partly to low humidity in north-central Brazil during October, November, and December, negatively impacting production, especially in Mato Grosso. However, he also noted a positive recovery in production in Rio Grande do Sul.
Looking ahead to the future of Brazilian soybean production, Roque expressed confidence that losses should not significantly worsen, given that the harvest is already nearing 70% completion nationwide, with optimistic prospects, particularly in the Matopiba region.
The sluggish pace of crop sales in Brazil is also contributing to low soybean prices, with only around 36% of expectations met by March 8. Roque explained that when producers delay selling soybeans and negotiate them at harvest time, it impedes price recovery.
On the export front, the first quarter has seen a strong performance, with 26.8 million tons of soybeans slated for shipment, according to port schedules. However, for the entire year, Safras estimates exports to reach around 94 million tons, below the 102 million tons shipped in 2023, due to lower production expectations.
Regarding soybean meal, analyst Gabriel Viana anticipates a weaker market in Brazil this year, either due to reduced domestic supply or diminished export potential, as Argentina rebounds in its productive capacity. Conversely, there's optimism for soybean oil, with expectations of price and demand recovery driven by increased crush towards the production of B14 biodiesel.
Comments