On Friday (28th), the day of USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) reports on planting areas and stock numbers, soybean contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) recovered positions, with year-end quotations maintaining stability at $11.10. The November '24 contract, a key indicator for American farmers, stood at $11.12, up by 8 points. Despite the gains, the market remains anxious about the reports potentially showing higher planting areas and stocks, which could exert downward pressure on prices.
"The American climate is favorable and planting progress is above average. There are no significant issues, and we might see a very good harvest with record production potential," commented Luiz Fernando Gutierrez, an analyst at Safras & Mercado.
Expectations suggest that the USDA will report a slight increase in planting areas for soybeans, corn, and wheat compared to the numbers projected in March. "We are now looking at post-planting numbers, which should be closer to reality, and if this trend is confirmed, the market might react negatively," added the analyst.
For soybeans, market expectations range from 34.6 to 35.41 million hectares, with an average of 35.11 million. Three months ago, the estimated area for soybeans was 35.01 million. In the 2023/24 season, the U.S. cultivated 33.83 million hectares.
The market also anticipates a corn planting area between 36.46 and 36.95 million hectares, with an average expectation of 36.57 million. In March, the USDA estimated 36.02 million, whereas the country cultivated 38.3 million hectares in the previous season.
For wheat, the market expects an average of 19.29 million hectares, within a range of 19.06 to 19.83 million, compared to the 19.22 million hectares projected three months ago. Last season, 20.06 million hectares were dedicated to wheat.
Quarterly Stocks
Regarding quarterly grain stocks, market expectations are for higher numbers for soybeans, corn, and wheat compared to March.
The expected range for soybeans is 23.43 to 27.62 million tons, with an average of 26.18 million. A year ago, American stocks were 21.66 million.
For corn, market expectations vary from 118.75 to 127.34 million tons, with an average of 123.78 million. The average estimate is also higher than last June's figure of 104.22 million.
Wheat quarterly stocks are expected to be between 17.53 and 19.19 million tons, with an average of 18.62 million. A year ago, the figure was 15.51 million tons.
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