China imported a record-breaking 12.14 million tons of soybeans in August, as traders took advantage of lower prices to boost their inventories. This move comes amid concerns that trade tensions with the U.S. could escalate if Donald Trump were to return to the presidency. The August imports reflect a significant 29% increase from the 9.43 million tons imported during the same period last year, according to calculations by Reuters based on customs data released on Tuesday.
Rosa Wang, an analyst from the Shanghai-based agro-consulting firm JCI, explained, "The increase was due to delayed customs clearance from the previous month finally being completed in August." Additionally, the lower soybean prices in Chicago provided a favorable opportunity for bulk purchases, with some speculating that buyers are preparing for potential tariff hikes should Trump win the U.S. elections.
Between January and August, China received a total of 70.48 million tons of soybeans, marking a 2.8% increase from the previous year, according to data from China's General Administration of Customs.
Despite the surge in imports, the country’s excess soybean supply remains a concern, especially as weak domestic economic conditions have dampened meat and dairy consumption. Soybeans are primarily used to produce animal feed and cooking oil. While domestic inventories of soybeans and soybean meal have decreased slightly, they remain high, according to agricultural consultancy MySteel.
In September, rising import costs for soybeans pushed crushing margins in China's key processing hub, Rizhao, to the highest levels since July. However, processors continue to incur losses of about 300 yuan ($42.17) per ton.
In Brazil, soybean producers are expected to increase output by 14% during the 2024/25 season compared to the previous year, according to a Reuters poll of 10 analysts and market institutions. This rise is linked to optimistic forecasts for more rainfall in the last quarter of the year.
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