The first estimate for the Brazilian soybean crop for 2024/25 by StoneX forecasts a record production of 165 million tons, marking a 10.8% increase compared to the previous cycle, which was impacted by climatic challenges.
"This growth is a result of the expected recovery in productivity, provided the weather doesn't bring major surprises, as well as the continued expansion of the planting area," explained Ana Luiza Lodi, market intelligence specialist at StoneX.
The national planted area is estimated at 46.5 million hectares, a 0.79% increase compared to last year. Significant area expansions are noted in the Central-West region and, to a lesser extent, in Paraná and Santa Catarina.
This year's increase in planting area is more modest compared to recent years, as soybean prices are less favorable. The global balance, indicating a wider gap between supply and demand due to the successful U.S. harvest, has been putting pressure on prices.
With the anticipated recovery in soybean production, there is room for exports to exceed 100 million tons in the 2024/25 cycle, and domestic consumption is expected to continue growing, given Brazil's significant role in meat production and biodiesel. For biodiesel, the adoption of B15 is planned for 2025.
Even with strong demand, the record production is likely to ensure a comfortable balance with ending stocks estimated at 6.96 million tons.
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