After experiencing a decline in the previous session due to a surge in the dollar, the soybean market began Thursday (27th) slightly in the positive on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT). August 2024 contracts were trading at $11.45, up 3 points, while September 2024 contracts were at $11.08, up 0.75 points. The stronger dollar benefits Brazilian soybeans, prompting producers to expedite their negotiations for the 2024/25 cycle. This morning, the dollar fell to R$5.49, down 0.49%.
Tomorrow, June 28, the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) will release new data on planted areas in the U.S., with adjustments from March figures, and quarterly grain stock reports as of June 1. These reports, especially those concerning planted areas, are expected to impact market trends significantly. Until these new figures are released, markets are likely to remain volatile, driven by expectations for these reports.
The American climate remains favorable for a productive and high-quality soybean harvest. If the projections released this Friday confirm this information, market prices may face downward pressure in the third quarter. "The November 2024 contract fluctuates between $11 and $11.10, which is a very bad sign on the eve of a planting report," one market analyst noted.
Expectations indicate a slight increase in the planted area for soybeans, corn, and wheat compared to the figures presented in March. For soybeans, market area expectations range from 34.6 to 35.41 million hectares, with an average of 35.11 million. Three months ago, the estimated area for soybeans was 35.01 million hectares. In the 2023/24 season, the U.S. cultivated 33.83 million hectares.
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