China's soybean imports in June increased by 10.7% compared to the previous year, according to Reuters calculations based on customs data released on Friday. Buyers are stocking up on cheaper Brazilian grains ahead of the US export season in the fourth quarter.
The world's largest soybean buyer imported 11.11 million tons in June, up from 10 million tons the previous year. Brazil's soybean export season is slowing down as the harvest ends. Excessive rain and severe flooding hampered production and shipments in May.
Shipments in the first half of the year fell 2.2% compared to the previous year, totaling 48.48 million tons, according to the General Administration of Customs data.
China is expected to record record soybean import volumes in July, attracted by lower prices and the prospect of Donald Trump potentially reigniting trade tensions if elected president of the US in November.
July arrivals are expected to reach 12 million to 13 million tons, compared to 9.73 million tons shipped in the same month last year, according to traders and analysts.
"Definitely, there is a bit more preparation and buying ahead of a possible Trump victory in November," said Darin Friedrichs, co-founder of Shanghai-based Sitonia Consulting.
"The market is pricing in the potential for this but also the uncertainty regarding trade actions that might be implemented," he added.
The USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) set soybean imports for the 2024/25 campaign at 103 million tons, unchanged from last year's estimates.
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