NEW DELHI/MUMBAIĀ - India announced on Monday that above-average monsoon rains are forecasted for the year 2024, a potential catalyst for the nation highly dependent on these summer rains for its agriculture.
India's economy, which provides nearly 70% of the necessary rainfall to irrigate crops and recharge reservoirs, eagerly awaits the period from June to September to cultivate various crops. With nearly half of its agricultural land not irrigated, India heavily relies on monsoon rains for successful harvests.
The prospect of abundant rains may not only boost agricultural growth but also overall economic growth, potentially alleviating food inflation, which has remained above the central bank's comfortable level in recent months.
Secretary of the Ministry of Earth Sciences, M. Ravichandran, revealed that this year's monsoon rains are expected to reach 106% of the long-term average. This news is especially welcome after a year of below-average rains in 2023, which depleted reservoirs and affected food production. Export restrictions on commodities such as sugar, rice, onions, and wheat were imposed by the government in response to this situation.
"The forecast based on dynamic and statistical models suggests that monsoon rains from June to September are likely to reach 106% of the long-term average," said Ravichandran at a press conference.
The India Meteorological Department defines average or normal precipitation as between 96% and 104% of a 50-year average for the four-month season.
India Meteorological Department chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra stated that El NiƱo is weakening and will enter a neutral phase at the onset of the monsoons, while La NiƱa, which typically brings abundant rains to India, will set in by August.
With the potential for surplus rain improving production, it is expected that New Delhi will relax export restrictions, especially those related to rice, according to a dealer from a global trading company.
Comments