The seventh estimate for the 2023/2024 grain harvest, released by the National Supply Company (Conab) on Thursday (11), indicates that Brazil's grain production is expected to reach a total of 294.1 million tons. This represents an 8% reduction compared to the previous season, translating to 25.7 million tons less to be harvested. Despite a stable area estimated at 78.53 million hectares, the decrease is primarily attributed to the strong intensity of the El Niño phenomenon, which negatively influenced crop development from planting to maturity in the country's productive regions. This led to a decline in average productivity, dropping from 4,072 kilograms per hectare to 3,744 kg/ha.
As the first crop harvesting phase nears completion, attention shifts to the development of second and third crops, as well as winter crops. Climatic conditions continue to play a decisive role in the final outcome of the current cycle. Compared to the company's previous forecast released in early March, there is a reduction in total production by 1.52 million tons, with the most significant decreases observed in corn, totaling 1.79 million tons, and soybeans, with a decrease of 336.7 thousand tons. Conversely, rice, cotton, sesame, sorghum, and especially beans, show prospects of increased production compared to the last survey.
With harvesting operations advanced in the main producing states, covering approximately 76.4% of the cultivated area in the country, the estimated soybean production stands at 146.52 million tons, reflecting a 5.2% reduction from the previous harvest. This decrease is attributed to low precipitation and above-average temperatures in the main producing regions of the Midwest and Southeast, causing planting delays and productivity losses.
Comments