With the use of satellite images complemented by surveys with Agroconsult's contact network, monitoring of the input market, and field analysis, the Harvest Rally indicates a new scenario for the soybean harvest in Mato Grosso do Sul and Brazil. The negative revisions in productivity have occurred in various regions: Mato Grosso do Sul, São Paulo, and Paraná. Specifically, in Mato Grosso do Sul, there has been a reduction from 57.5 to 51.2 bags per hectare, in São Paulo from 55 to 48 bags per hectare, and in Paraná from 58 to 56.1 bags per hectare. These updated figures were released today.
Debastiani, explaining the adjustments in the planted area, notes that the Rally's initial objective of reducing the asymmetry of market information has been achieved. Despite this new area being unfamiliar to many in the sector, several soybean trading companies were already operating with larger areas and production volumes, using a similar methodology to generate estimates.
Agroconsult, the organizer of the technical expedition, implemented a crop assessment tool utilizing algorithms to analyze satellite images. This update has revised the Brazilian area for the 2023/24 harvest to 46.4 million hectares, which is 753 thousand hectares above the last projection. Additionally, the production estimate has been raised to 156.5 million tons, compared to 152.2 million tons in the previous projection, with an average productivity estimated at 56.2 bags per hectare.
In Mato Grosso do Sul, according to the Siga-MS Project (Agribusiness Geographic Information System), the soybean harvested area reached 87.3% as of March 22. The southern region leads with an average of 91.6%, followed by the central region with 85.5%, and the northern region with 72.5%. The area harvested to date is approximately 3.723 million hectares, as estimated.
The Casa Rural bulletin, from the Famasul System, estimates that the harvest in Mato Grosso do Sul for the 2023/24 cycle will be 6.5% larger compared to the previous cycle, reaching an area of 4.265 million hectares, with an estimated productivity of 54 bags per hectare. This projection aligns with the productive potential observed in the state's last five harvests, generating an expected production of 13.818 million tons.
Comparing the Rally's estimates with those of Conab, there is a notable difference. Agroconsult's new estimates for the 23/24 harvest point to an increase in the planted area in various regions, totaling a difference of 1.2 million hectares compared to Conab's data. Additionally, there is approximately 10 million tons more estimated in soybean production compared to Conab's figures, with differences attributed to estimated productivity and planted area.
Comments