Soybean Prices Drop Over 2% in Chicago, Reflecting Projections of Bumper US Crop and Leading Declines Across the Complex

Soybean futures traded on the Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) are down over 2% this Tuesday afternoon (13), intensifying earlier losses and continuing the sharp decline observed in the previous session. The market remains under pressure due to expectations of a robust crop from the United States for the 2024/25 season.

"Futures are depreciating for the sixth consecutive session, with the increase in US production forecasts and the maintenance of soybean crop quality at 68%, strengthening the pressure on CBOT," states the daily report from Pátria Agronegócios. In its August monthly supply and demand report, the USDA (United States Department of Agriculture) revised upward, on Monday (12), the productivity, planted and harvested areas, production, and final stocks for US soybeans.

The new US crop jumped in the institution's estimates from 120.9 to 124.7 million tons, exerting even more aggressive pressure on prices. The country's final stocks are expected to exceed 15 million tons, compared to just over 11 million in the July report.

Balancing the market slightly is, on the one hand, the upward revision of US export forecasts—which could slightly exceed 50 million tons—in the report, as well as recent sales reported by the USDA in recent days. Today, 132,000 tons were announced as sold to China.

However, in the 2024/25 marketing year, the total soybean commitments by the US are still slow, and as Agrinvest Commodities explains, "they may start with the lowest committed percentage in history for the beginning of the season." Moreover, the consultancy adds that "the USDA's message is clear: producers need to speed up their sales, even with prices under strong pressure, or the program will need to be revised downward in future reports. Both scenarios are negative for soybeans."

Among derivatives, the declines are also significant. Soybean oil futures are down over 2.5%, and soybean meal futures are down more than 1.3%, both feeling the pressure—among other factors—of the end of the processors' strike in Argentina.