Mato Grosso, Brazil's primary agricultural state, anticipates its largest-ever soybean crop loss, causing the nation's overall 2023/24 output to drop to 153 million mt, as per Itaú BBA consulting's Wednesday estimates.
The consulting firm stated, “We reduced Mato Grosso’s yields, resulting in a 20% crop loss compared to initial estimates, expecting the state to harvest less than 40 million mt of soybeans.”
If proven accurate, these estimates would mark the most substantial soybean crop loss in Mato Grosso's history, according to Itaú BBA.
Despite forecasted improved rainfall, the drier first half of December posed a threat to crops in drought-affected areas, affecting Brazil’s center-west and north/northeast regions, including Mato Grosso
With the country's new output estimate at 153 million mt (5 million mt lower than two weeks ago) and a 3% rise in domestic consumption, Itaú BBA predicts Brazil’s 2023/24 soybean exports to range between 95 and 96 million mt
However, Itaú BBA cautioned that a projected 5% growth in global grains and oilseeds demand throughout the year will impact soybean prices during the season.
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