
The Brazilian Soybean crop estimates for 2023/24 are being overestimated, regardless of whether the numbers are sourced from private sectors or governmental institutions, stated the Aprosoja Brasil producers' association on Wednesday. The association maintained its projection of approximately 135 million tons, possibly the lowest in the market.
According to Aprosoja, the estimate would represent a drop of about 20 million tons compared to the record of the previous season, considering Conab's forecast for 2022/23 (154.6 million tons).
For the current season, which is being harvested, Conab projects a decrease to 149.4 million tons.
Even private consulting firms are diverging on the numbers. Last Friday, while StoneX raised its forecast for the Brazilian soybean crop to 151.5 million tons, AgResource released a more pessimistic analysis, pointing to 143.92 million tons.
Meanwhile, the industry association, Abiove, estimates the harvest at 153.8 million tons.
Aprosoja stated that the "reports from producers reflect the reality experienced in the field, which is very different from current estimates from private companies and official agencies."
"What producers have reported is that even in crops that were visually in good condition, the grains are not developing well due to existing anomalies, with a reduction in weight...," they stated.
Harvest in Brazil has reached approximately 50% of the area on a national average.
"Combine harvesters are recording much lower productivity than initially estimated," Aprosoja continued.
The entity stated that it has been "engaging" with the Parliamentary Front for Agriculture (FPA), financial institutions, and the Ministry of Agriculture "to ensure that solutions to assist producers are accessible as soon as possible."
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